高盛：中日经济比较.pdfVIP

September 25, 2012 Issue No: 12/17 Japan Economics Analyst Economics Research China vs. 1970s Japan: Tipping point in a domestic demand-based economy Chiwoong Lee Japan recorded average real GDP growth of 9+% during its rapid-growth +81(3)6437-9984 chiwoong.lee@ period from 1950s to 1960s. After the 1970s, however, real GDP growth Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. slowed sharply to an annual average of 4.8% in the 1970s-1980s. Supply- side factors resulting from the two oil crises are the standard explanation Naohiko Baba for this “permanent” slowdown in growth, but they alone do not explain +81(3)6437-9960 naohiko.baba@ the falloff that had already begun “before” the oil crises. Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. External factors definitely had a large impact, but the economy was still Yuriko Tanaka being driven by domestic demand at the time. Thus, we must closely +81(3)6437-9964 yuriko.tanaka@ consider changes in domestic conditions. Among these factors are (1) a Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. rise in the labor share of income in Japan, which had reached the “Lewis Turning Point,” at which the supply of excess labor dries up; (2) a decline in capital returns as progress in “catch-up” technology reached its limits; and (3) the end of a virtuous circle of higher demand for consumer durables, driven by rises in the labor share of income and the number of households, and increases in capex driven by demand. Let us also note that Japanese land prices in the high growth period rose by +19.3% yoy on average, higher than d