移民、气候变化、环境.pdfVIP

IOM Policy Brief May 2009 Migration, Climate Change and the Environment 1 This Policy Brief presents key information and analysis on the interplay between migration, climate change and the environment. It is designed as a general introduction to the topic and presentation of the perspective and involvement of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in this field. For further information, please visit the IOM webpage on Migration, Climate Change and Environmental Degradation: /envmig. I. Migration, Climate Change and the Environment: A Complex Nexus Environmental factors have long had an impact on global migration flows. Although there is limited reliable data on the subject, the scale of such flows, both internal and cross-border, is expected to rise significantly over the next decades as a result of climate change. z The most widely cited figure is one put forward by Norman Myers of Oxford University, who suggests that up to 200 million people could be on the move due to environmental factors by 2050 (see, for example, Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change). z All in all, forecasts of the number of persons having to move due to climate change and environmental degradation by 2050 vary by a factor of 40 (between 25 million and one billion) and largely depend on which of the scenarios for the advance of climate change put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change1 will materialize. IOM Policy Brief - May 2009 Essentially, there is a two-way relationship between migration and the environment: environmental factors precipitate migration and migration affects the environment. Climate change