广东省工业行业能源消耗影响因素的实证分析.docVIP

 广东省工业行业能源消耗影响因素的实证 分析 傅京燕，张后立* 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （暨南大学经济学院，广州 510632） 摘要：改革开放以来，尤其是进入新世纪后，广东省作为改革开放的前沿阵地，经济发展举 世瞩目。同时也要看到，随着经济尤其是工业经济的高速发展，广东省的能源消耗迅速增加， 并由此带来了重大的的环境污染和生态破坏等问题。工业行业作为广东省的支柱产业，对经 济社会发展起着决定性的作用，同时工业行业也是能源消费的主体。因此，深入了解工业内 部各行业的能源利用效率和结构变化，对减少能源消费和降低能源强度具有重大意义。本文 选取 2001--2010 年工业部门 36 个行业作为研究对象，把导致能源消耗总量变化的总效应分 解为规模效应、技术效应和结构效应。分解结果表明，结构效应和技术效应对降低能源消耗 具有正作用，规模效应对降低能源使用量具有负作用。这说明广东省工业行业总体能源利用 技术在进步，而以调整经济结构为目的的产业升级调整措施已经初见成效。 关键词：能源消耗；LMDI；乘法分解；工业部门 中图分类号：F426 An Empirical Analysis of Influential Factor of Guangdongs Energy Consumpution in Industrial Sector FU Jingyan, ZHANG Houli (Economic School, Jinan University, GuangZhou 510632) Abstract: Guangdong province，as the experimental field of reform and opening up policy， leads in the pace of economic development and economic total for a long time. Guangdong province is irreplaceable in china’s economy. Guangdong’s industry is very developed and it plays a very important role in Guangdong’s economy ,in the respect of both pace and total of economy. As a developed Industrialized province，guangdong consumes large quantity of energy every year. So decomposing the index of energy consumption and analyzing the factors influencing energy consumption have a wonderful practical significance. This paper calculates the scale effects、 technical effect and structural effect which contribute the change of energy consumption based on the panel data of Guangdong’36 industrial sectors during the period from 2001 to 2010. The result shows that Guangdong’s technical effect and structural effects make a positive contribution to reduce energy consumption and scale effect’s contribution is negative. In other words ， guangdong’s industrial energy efficiency is making progress and it’s policy with the purpose of adjusting the economic structure are effective. Keywords: energy consumption; LMDI; multiplicative decomposition; industry 0 引言 引言改革开放以来，广东省利用国家的特殊政策和地缘优势，经济社会发展一直走在全 国的前列。2010 年，广东省 GDP 总量为 46013.06 亿元，实现了四万亿