基于中间投入的部门碳排放系数估计.docVIP

 基于中间投入的部门碳排放系数估计# 朱永彬* （中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所，北京 100190） 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 摘要：各种减排措施，如征收碳税以及进行碳排放权交易等难以实施是由于对 CO2 排放量 的监测面临技术和经济成本的双重困难。以往对生产部门和消费活动产生的碳排放估计比较 粗糙且不能适应技术进步引起的生产结构变动，如中间产品之间的相互替代。本文从“碳源” 入手，将生产最终产品产生的 CO2 分为消耗中间产品的排放和生产流程中的排放两部分， 对主要经济部门投入中间产品的排放系数与生产流程过程中的碳排放系数进行估算，发现中 间产品排放系数中以煤为首的能源部门最高，其次为制造业部门，而高技术产业部门的排放 系数较低，且对降低 CO2 排放有重要作用；第三产业的排放系数表现为“两级分化”的现象， 信息产业、旅游及科学研究等部门产品投入有利于 CO2 排放的降低，而社会服务、金融保 险和交通运输部门产品的投入有增加排放的作用。生产流程过程的碳排放仍以油-电-煤等能 源部门和造纸印刷部门居高，纺织、建筑和化工部门居中，制造业和金属非金属制品业普遍 高于采选业。 关键词：环境经济学；投入产出结构；中间投入；生产流程；碳排放系数 中图分类号：F062，F064 Carbon Coefficient Estimation Based on the Intermediate Input ZHU Yongbin (Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100190) Abstract: Many abatement measures, as levying carbon tax or ETS hinge on the effective monitoring on carbon emissions, while the estimation of carbon emission during the process of production or consumption is coarse and not adaptable to technology-induced change of production structure, for instance, the inter-substitution between intermediate inputs. Tracing back to the sources, this paper dismantled the carbon emission into two parts, one is from the input of intermediate goods and the other occurs during the production process. In gathering the emission data of each sectors and the input-output data, the carbon coefficients of different intermediate inputs, as well as those related to the production process, are estimated with econometric tools. It shows that intermediate goods from energy sectors, especially the Coal Mining sector, have the highest carbon coefficient, followed by manufacture sectors. High-tech industrial sectors associate with low carbon coefficient and play essential roles in reducing carbon emission. A polarization of carbon coefficients exist in the tertiary sectors: Information industry, Tourism and Scientific research provide intermediate products that have negtive carbon coefficients, while the goods from Social service, Finance and