英文【高盛】中国房地产周度综述：第20周综述-交易回升，出口导向型城市表现更为乐观.pptxVIP

Research|EquityYiWang,CFA+86(21)|GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimitedShiXu+86(21)|GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimitedKaiyanJing+86(21)|GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimitedKeydatapointsNewhomessalesvolumeonaveragewas+12%wowand+21%yoy,withtier-1andNorthernoutperforming.Secondarytransactionsonaveragewere+42%wowand+23%yoy,withpositivepriceappreciationexpectationsfromagentsbutnothomeowners.MTDMay:PrimaryGFAsoldonmedianwas-5%momandwas-12%yoy,wheretier-1/2/3was-1%/-4%/-7%momand+11%/-14%/-11%yoy,respectively.SecondaryGFAsoldonmedianwas-26%momand-6%yoy,wheretier-1/2/3was-24%/-27%/-24%momand+6%/-7%/-9%yoy,respectively.YTD:PrimaryGFAsoldwas+2%yoyoncity-averagebasisand+5%yoyonaggregatedvolumebasis;secondaryGFAsoldwas+9%yoyoncity-averagebasisand+26%yoyonaggregatedvolumebasis.Inventorybalancewasflattishwowand-2.4%fromend-24level,withinventorymonthsat26.3(vs.average25.9inApr-25).Valuation:Offshorecoveragedevelopersonaveragesawsharepricedecline-2%wow(vs.-1%forMSCI20May2025|7:01AMCSTChinaPropertyWeeklyWrapWeek20Wrap-Transactionsreboundedwithmoreupbeatperformancefromexport-orientedcitiesKeyhighlightsfortheweek:Ourtariffimpactassessment(Exhibit1toExhibit4,moredetailsonmethodology)showcasesmoreupbeatperformancefromexport-reliantcities:1)transaction:underweb-registrationmetrics,themostexport-reliantcitiesoutperformedinprimary(+26%wowinaggregatedvolumevs.flattishforrestcities)butlaggedpeersinsecondary(+22%wowvs.+44%forrestcities).Thatsaid,theirsecondarysubscriptionsales(nuancesbetweensalesmetricsdetailedhere)outperformedsequentially(+2%wowvs.-4%forrestcities);2)secondaryvisitortrafficimproved2%wowinexport-reliantcities(vs.-3%forothercities)whiletheirsecondarylistingsupplydropped7%wow