投行报告-特朗普的胜利对市场和投资组合意味着什么（英）-20页.docx

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WhatTrump’swinmeansformarketsandportfolios

ChristianMueller-Glissmann,Head,AssetAllocationResearch,PortfolioStrategy,GoldmanSachsResearch

BrianGarrett,Head,EquityExecution,CrossAsset

Salesdesk,GlobalBankingMarkets,GoldmanSachs

AllisonNathan,SeniorStrategist,GoldmanSachs

Research

Dateofrecording:November6,2024

AllisonNathan:Themarketsarereactingforcefullyto

DonaldTrumpsvictoryintheU.S.presidentialelection.U.S.stocks,bondyields,andtheU.S.dollarareallrisingsharplyinWednesdaytrading,butwillthesemoveshave

legs?Andwhatmedium-andlonger-termmarketimplicationscouldthiselectionoutcomehave?

ImAllisonNathanandthisisGoldmanSachsExchanges.

[MUSICINTRO]

TodayImsittingdownwithChristianMueller-Glissmann,headofassetallocationresearchinGoldmanSachs

Research,andBrianGarrett,whooverseesequity

executiononourcrossassetsalesdeskinGoldmanSachsGlobalBankingandMarkets.

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Christian,Brian,welcometotheprogram.

BrianGarrett:Thankyouverymuch.Gladtobehere.

AllisonNathan:Yes.AndBrian,youvebeenupsincetheweehoursofthemorning.Christian,youwereinLondon,soyouhadthebenefitofthetimechange,butweveall

beenup,alotovernightwatchingthesemarkets,whichasIvejustsaid,arereactingquitestronglytoDonaldTrumpsvictory.Weveseentheseso-calledTrumptradesthatwevebeentalkingaboutforalongtimenowreallytakingoff.So,Brian,talkusthroughtheflowsthatyouareseeingtodayandhowmuchfurtheryouthinkthesetradescanrun

becausetheyvealreadyrunquitealot.

BrianGarrett:Ithinkcomingintotoday,clientswere

underweightriskonwheretheywantedtobe,especiallyintheeventofkindoftheTrumppotentialredsweep.Ifwe

weretohandicapit,clientswereprobablyrunningatafiveoutof10intermsofpositioning.Weveseenclientsengageontradesthatworkedfollowingthe2016election,which

were