上市公司财务风险防范及预警研究--以房地产上市公司为例.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE 12 摘 要 我国企业对房地产业的财务风险预警意识不强。它是公认的产业链长、周期长、投资大、不确定性大、风险高的行业，而房地产业的发展在中国经济中又占有重要地位，对促进经济繁荣发展具有重要影响。研究房地产业的财务风险及其预警是十分必要的，公司需要将财务指标与业务数据相结合，对于财务上可能出现的风险及时进行预 警，建立完善的预警体系，以随时测评公司可能存在的风险，保障公司的能健康地持续发展。 在本文中，详细论述了有关财务风险及其如何预警的基本理论，研究了我国房地产上市公司发展现状以及财务风险的内外部影响因素，接着引入了Altman教授的Z值模型，在对比下选用了Z3模型进行实证研究，用2020年六家ST 公司以及万科2017年~2020年的财务指标作为样本数据进行检验，最后针对分析结果对加强房地产上市公司财务风险防范和预警提出了对策和建议。 关键词：房地产上市公司；财务风险预警；Z3模型 ABSTRACT Chinese enterprises to the real estate industry of financial risk early warning awareness is not strong. It is recognized as an industry with a long industrial chain, long industrial cycle, large investment, large uncertainty and high risk, and the development of the real estate industry plays an important position in Chinas economy, which has an important impact on promoting economic prosperity and development. It is very necessary to study the financial risks and their early warning of the real estate industry. The company needs to combine the financial indicators with the business data, give timely early warning of the possible financial risks, and establish a perfect early warning system to evaluate the possible risks of the company at any time and ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the company. In this paper, we discussed the basic theory of financial risk and its early warning, studied the development status and influence of internal and external factors of financial risk, then introduced the Z value model for empirical research, used six ST companies in 2020 and Vanke ~ 2020 financial indicators as sample data, and finally proposed countermeasures and suggestions to strengthening the financial risk prevention and early warning of real estate listed companies. Keywords: real estate listed company; financial risk warning; Z3 model 第1章 引言 近年来，在我国城镇化的快速发展的背景下,我国房地产业蓬勃发展，它在国民经济中也始终有着举足轻重的地位。但与之伴随的却是房地产行业的不平衡发展。高房价、高失业率等问题接踵而至。国家出台了一系列政策以控制房价的肆意疯长，促进房地产行业有序健康发展，房地产企业的经营风险也随之而增加，想在复杂多变的市场环境中生存和发展，就必须要求房地产行业对其财务中可能发生风险的严格监控。房地产行业是十分具代表性的一