普格尔《国际贸易（第17版）》 英文手册Pugel_17e_chap021_IM.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE 168 ? 2016 by McGraw-Hill Education. ?This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner. ?This document may not be copied, scanned, duplicated, forwarded, distributed, or posted on a website, in whole or part.? Chapter 21 International Lending and Financial Crises Overview International capital movements can bring major gains both to the lending or investing countries and to the borrowing countries, through intertemporal trade and through portfolio diversification for the lenders/investors. But international lending and borrowing sometimes is not well-behaved—financial crises are recurrent. This chapter examines both the gains from well-behaved lending and borrowing and what we know about international financial crises. We begin with the economic analysis of international capital flows that focuses on the stock of wealth of two countries and how that wealth can be lent or invested in the two countries. With no international lending, the country that has much wealth relative to its domestic investment opportunities will have a lower rate of return or interest rate. Freeing international capital flows permits the low-rate country to lend to the high-rate country. As the world shifts to an equilibrium with free capital movements, both countries gain. As usual, however, within each country there are groups that gain and groups that lose from the international lending. We can also use this analysis to show that either nation could gain by imposing a small tax on the international capital flows, because it could shift the pre-tax foreign interest rate in its favor. Either country could seek to impose a nationally optimal tax, but this works well only if the other country does not impose a comparable tax. International lending and borrowing often is well-behaved, but not always. The chapter next examines financial crises in developing countries during 1982 to 2002. Following defaults i