汽车革命-展望2030年.pdf

Automotive revolution – perspective towards 2030 How the convergence of disruptive technology-driven trends could transform the auto industry Advanced Industries January 2016 Introduction Today’s economies are dramatically changing, triggered by development in emerging markets, the accelerated rise of new technologies, sustainability policies, and changing consumer preferences around ownership. Digitization and new business models have revo- lutionized other industries, and automotive will be no exception. For the automotive sector, these forces are giving rise to four disruptive technology-driven trends: diverse mobility, autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity. Most industry players and experts agree that these four technology-driven trends will reinforce and accelerate one another, and there is general consensus that the industry is ripe for disruption. Yet although the widespread sentiment that game-changing disruption is already on the horizon, there is still no integrated perspective on how the automotive industry will look in 10 to 15 years as a result of these trends. With this publication we aim to make the imminent changes more tangible. We start from the general consensus that the industry is transforming and go further to specify and quan- tify the magnitude of change. The forecasts in this study should, thus, be interpreted as a projection of the more probable assumptions across all four trends, based on our current understanding. The forecast methodology is certainly not deterministic in nature (Text box 1), but should help industry players better prepare for the uncertainty by discussing potential future scenarios (Text box 2). Text box 1: The methodology behind “Automotive revolution – perspective towards 2030” ƒ Research on the future of mobility conducted in collaboration with Stanford University ƒ Substantial industry-wide research covering perspectives from incumbents, new e