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Telecom, Cable, Media, Satellite Towers
Spectrum of Opportunity: Ranking Telecom, PayTV and Media Stocks for June Performance
In May, the hypothetical weighted return of stocks under our coverage of -0.31% was 581bps below the float-weighted telco/cable/media portfolio return of 5.49% (unweighted -1.55%) and 50bps below the SP 500’s 0.18%. Today we update our monthly stock-ranking product, which is intended to provide clarity on our short-term expectations for stock moves within the wider context of our longer-term ratings. We assign each of our stocks a value out of a total of 200 points to indicate how we would weight near-term exposure to each company. Our monthly point allocations are driven by shorter-term catalysts such as seasonality or competitive developments. Our top picks for June are T-Mobile, Fox Corp, and Disney, while our least favorite names are US Cellular, Clear Channel Outdoor, and fuboTV. Rankings are on page 16.
T-Mobile (Overweight, 10 points, down 2 points): Best long-term idea. Keynote highlights strengths and potential upside drivers, and shares can rally further as we get through the Sprint network shutdown. T-Mobile’s CEO Sievert was a keynote speaker at the J.P. Morgan TMC conference on May 23, and he highlighted the launch of 5G Advanced Network Solutions, Sprint integration progress, balanced growth strategy, potential market share gains, and FCF generation potential. The company launched its 5G ANS offer with Dell, Ericsson, and Nokia to increase market share from 10% to 20% by 2025 in the growing enterprise market. CEO Sievert expects the Sprint integration to be largely complete by the end of the year with the hardest part taking place now. On the competitive front, the company is taking a balanced approach between subscriber and EBITDA growth, and this week ramped its porting offer from T/VZ with a $200 gift card for customers coming to Magenta Max. Part of the subscriber growth is driven by rural and small market expansion,
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