通货膨胀的回归——bis.pptx

The return of inflation 1 Speech by Agustín Carstens General Manager, Bank for International Settlements International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies Geneva, 5 April 2022 Introduction Thank you very much for inviting me to give this lecture. It is a pleasure and an honour to be here today. Being the BIS’s General Manager, it will not come as a surprise to you that I have decided to devote my presentation to the issue that is top of mind for policymakers around the world, namely the return of inflation. After more than a decade of struggling to bring inflation up to target, central banks now face the opposite problem. The shift in the inflationary environment has been remarkable. If you had asked me a year ago to lay out the key challenges for the global economy, I could have given you a long list, but high inflation would not have made the cut. This evening, I will describe the rise in inflation over the past year and discuss why this came as a surprise to many. I will argue that the pandemic and the extraordinary policy response laid the groundwork for a rapid and goods-intensive bounceback in demand which supply has been unable to fully meet. The war in Ukraine has further disrupted supply, particularly for commodities. I will also draw some broader lessons about the inflationary process – in particular, the need to look “under the hood” of aggregate data and models to understand how the behaviour of individual firms and workers drives inflation outcomes. A key message is that we may be on the cusp of a new inflationary era. The forces behind high inflation could persist for some time. New pressures are emerging, not least from labour markets, as workers look to make up for inflation-induced reductions in real income. And the structural factors that have kept inflation low in recent decades may wane as globalisation retreats. If my thesis is correct, central banks will need to adjust, as some are already doing. For many years now, having