基于EMD方法对中国能源消耗的分析与预测.pdf

摘 要 中国社会文化生活在有质有量的提升的同时，带来了能源消耗总量水平的不断提高，虽然近 几年来能源消耗总量的增长速度开始变缓，但是社会生产和生活带来的高能耗所引起的社会资源消 耗和社会环境污染的问题一直没有得到根本性的解决。一直以来中国的经济建设在减少能源消耗总 量和实现社会资源可持续发展的基础上不断地努力，国家为了能够有效改善因为社会需求而导致的 能源浪费，提出了落实节能减排的政策。然而我国要进行节能减排的压力却比全球上任何一个国家 都要大，因此中国不得不走上了新兴的工业化社会生产的道路，只有通力合作打造资源节约型、环 境友好型的社会，才有可能完成节能减排这一伟大的目标。为了达成节能减排的目标，我们眼下最 首要的任务就是做到减少能源消耗。本文主要通过使用 EMD 方法（经验状态分解）来对中国能源消 耗总量、能源生产总量以及人口总量这三方面数据的分解来预测未来的发展趋势，进而达到对现阶 段的能源消耗分析和预测，为了保证最后结果的正确性，本篇论文在使用 EMD 方法分解预测后，通 过使用 R 语言进行编码来进行相同的预测操作以达到检验的效果，最终检验结果说明 EMD 方法分解 预测的结论是可取的。而本文的分解预测的结论指明了，中国能源消耗总量处在快速上升的状态， 因此为了保证社会生产与生态环境的和谐共存，节能减排这一道路将是我们必须始终坚持贯彻执行 的重大举措。 关键字：人口；EMD；能源消耗；节能减排 Abstract While Chinas social and cultural life has been qualitatively and qualitatively promoted, the total amount of energy consumption has been raised continuously. Although the growth rate of the total energy consumption has slowed down in recent years, the problems of social resources consumption and social environment pollution caused by the high energy consumption of social production and life have been all along. There is no fundamental solution. Chinas economic construction has been working hard on the basis of reducing the total amount of energy consumption and realizing the sustainable development of social resources. In order to effectively improve the energy waste caused by the social demand, the country has put forward the policy of implementing energy saving and emission reduction. However, the pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction in China is larger than any other country in the world. Therefore, China has to take a new road to industrial production. Only by working together to create a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, it is possible to achieve the great goal of energy saving and reduction. In order to achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission