2018～2021年度新兴经济体发展分析报告.docx

新兴经济体发展 2018-2021 年度报告 序言 ·························Ⅸ········ 1.12017年总体形势 ··································1············1.22018-2021年形势展望 ··································4 1.1 2017 年总体形势 ··································1············ 1.2 2018-2021 年形势展望 ··································4············ 第 2 章 经济增长 ····················7 ······· 2.1 经济增速显著提升 ·································7············ 2.2 净出口对经济增长的贡献上升 ···························12············ 2.3 积极向好的增长态势或将延续 ···························15············ 第 3 章 就业与收入 ··················1·9 ······· 3.1 多数国家失业率上升 ·······························1·9············ 3.2 收入下降但分配改善 ·······························2·6············ 第 4 章 物价与货币政策 ················31········ 4.1 通货膨胀得到较好控制 ······························3·1 ············ 4.2 货币政策调整空间有限 ······························3·4 ············ 第 5 章 国际贸易 ···················3·9 ······· 5.1 贸易增长强劲且更趋平衡 ·····························3·9 ··········· 5.2 贸易保护主义仍值得警惕 ·····························4·5 ··········· 5.3 贸易合作呈现新趋势 ·······························4·8············ 第 6 章 国际直接投资 ·················57········ 6.1 直接投资增长乏力且分化明显 ···························57············ III 6.2 投资环境总体持续改善 ······························6·4·········· 第 7 章 大宗商品 ···················69······· 7.1 能源类大宗商品价格显著回升 ···························70··········· 7.2 金属类大宗商品价格延续上年涨势 ·························74·········· 7.3 贵金属类大宗商品价格总体平稳 ··························76··········· 7.4 化肥类大宗商品价格整体下滑 ···························76··········· 7.5 农产品类大宗商品价格多数平稳 ··························77··········· 7.6 国际大宗商品价格对 E11 的影响显著 ·······················7·7 ·········· 第 8 章 债务 ·····················81······· 8.1 公共债务风险可控 ·································81·········· 8.2 私人债务风险减小 ·································85·········· 8.3 外债风险上升 ···································88··········· 第 9 章 金融市场 ···················91······· 9.1 货币贬值压力总体有所减轻 ····························9·1 ·········· 9.2 国债收益率有所上升 ·················