股票外汇技术分析英文版11.pptVIP

FIN 40500: International Finance Beyond the Fundamentals; Technical Analysis Chart Analysis Quantitative Methods What pattern do you see? Can you find the Pattern? Elliott Waves Elliot wave theory relies on cycles within cycles Grand Super cycle Super cycle Cycle Each cycle consists of 5 moves with the trend (1,3,5 are impulse, 2,4 are corrective) and 3 that are against the trend. A “5-3” wave RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) Fast Stochastic Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) The MACD indicator calculates the difference between moving averages of two different lengths (usually, 12 periods and 26 periods) The signal is typically a 9 period moving average of the difference A divergence means that “something is happening” Positive to Negative = Sell Signal Negative to Positive = Buy Signal MACD Punch line Technical methods are useful for short run prediction Don’t lose sight of the fundamentals!!! If “Up Points” = 0, RSI = 0 If “Down Points” = 0, RSI = 100 RSI 30 (Oversold) RSI 70 (Overbought) Chart Interval: 15 minutes Period Length: 20 (300 minutes) Total “up” points = 7 Total “down” points = 11 Period High: FS = 100 Period Low: FS = 0 Signal 30 (Oversold) Signal 70 (Overbought) .2 .2 .6 .2 .1 -.1 .3 .6 Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May 4 3 2 1 MA .33 .33 .3 .07 .10 .27 .2 .4 .4 .15 0 .1 .45 .2 .2 .6 .2 .1 -.1 .3 .6 .3 .275 .2 .17 .3 Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May A moving average takes out the volatility by averaging several observations. For example, a MA(3) would average the current observation with the previous 2 observations. Data * * Fundamental analysis focuses on economic/financial theory and various economic indicators to explain market movements Trade Balance Approach Monetary Approach Interest Rate Approach Price Level Approach Technical analysis is not concerned with the causes of market movements. Instead, technical analysis focuses on the move