重工业优先发展战略丶城市化与城乡收入差距：——来自中国的证据.pdf

重工业优先发展战略、城市化与城乡收入差距： ——来自中国的证据 内容提要：理论研究表明，重工业优先发展战略将导致单位资本吸纳的劳动力减少，城 市化水平降低，农业从业人员增加，农村工资水平下降，城乡工资差距扩大。本章利用中国 1978～2004 年的省级面板数据对该理论假说进行了实证检验。基于对最优技术选择指数的 不同假设，本文构建可用于实证检验的计量模型。不同计量模型的最小二乘估计结果都支持 了理论假说：赶超程度越大，城市化水平越低；城市化水平越低，城乡收入差距越大；赶超 程度越大，城乡收入差距越大。使用两阶段最小二乘模型对技术选择指数内生性进行处理后， 计量结果依然支持上述理论假说。文章发现，当控制了时间趋势因素后，中国城乡收入差距 在经济发展过程中呈现出 U 型规律，即城乡收入差距随着经济发展先下降后上升。同时， 经济开放和政府干预将导致中国城乡收入差距扩大。计量结果表明，随着工业化推进，城市 化水平将不断提高，但工业化进程对城市化水平的影响呈现边际递减。市场化程度、人力资 本水平和资源丰裕程度对城市化水平影响显著为正。本文的主要结论对模型假设和模型设定 是稳健的。 关键词： 重工业优先发展战略 城市化 城乡收入差距 English Title: Development Strategy, Urbanization and Urban-Rural Inequality Based on China’s provincial-level panel data from 1978~2004, Chapter 6 carries out an empirical test on the relationship between development strategy, urbanization and rural-urban inequality. We construct different empirical models under different assumptions on optimal technology choice index (TCI), which is a proxy for development strategy. Different models of least square estimation results support the theoretical hypothesis: the greater the degree of a CAD strategy, the lower the urbanization rate, and the higher the rural-urban inequality. We use instrument variable to address the endogeneity of TCI, and the results of two-stage least squares model also support the theoretical hypothesis. The paper finds that Chinas urban-rural inequality shows an increase after a decline in the course of economic development when the time trend factors are controlled. Meanwhile, market-oriented economic reform and government intervention will lead to higher urban-rural income inequality in China. The empirical results show that the urbanization rate will increase along the process of industrialization. Market-oriented economic reform, human capital stock and the natural resource have significant positive effects on the level of urbanization. Key Words: