AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND TRADE POLICIES课件.ppt

精品文档 “Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“ “Run Fast ... Run Smart ... Run Lean“ 精品文档 As we look to the future, several factors are driving increases in the demand for agricultural output. This in turn, drives demand for the equipment, information and technology services to produce the output. For example, the world population is expected to increase from 6.5 billion people today to over 8 billion people by 2030, with almost all the projected growth in urban areas of developing countries. Just as the total population is expected to grow, so will the average income per person. Again, most rapidly in developing nations like India and China. The income growth will exceed population growth. So while population growth will fuel demand for more food in the future, rising incomes will accelerate that demand. There is a fundamental relationship between income growth and food demand. As incomes grow, peoples’ diets shift from grains to meat and dairy as the source of dietary protein. The increase in meat and dairy consumption will occur primarily in developing nations as these populations increase the amount of dietary protein that comes from animal products. To meet the increased demand for meat, higher production of feed grains is required. Although shifting diets will reduce direct consumption of grains, the increase in feed grain consumed by animals more the than offsets that reduction. Future crop production is also expected to be diverted for alternative uses. Higher fuel costs coupled with government policies aimed at curbing dependence on oil-based energy are increasing the demand for ethanol and bio-diesel. Example: 53% of Brazilian sugarcane production and 15% of US corn production are being used to produce ethanol. The growth rate has already exceeded the predictions in this chart for the past two years. As the world looks to meet the increasing demand for agricultural output, it is important to consider from where the demand will be met. This provid