国内进口鱼粉价格风险预警分析-农业经济管理专业论文.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE 4 2001 年我国加入了世界贸易组织，我国国内农业大宗产品的进 出口贸易与国际市场密切相关，对于进口依存度较高的饲料原料市 场，进行价格风险的预警研究是非常必要的。在我国鱼粉市场供不应 求、大量依赖进口的条件下，对鱼粉市场进行合理的预测预警，对饲 料行业、畜禽饲养和水产养殖业的持续健康发展有重要的意义。同时， 在日益繁盛的国际贸易中，价格预警对国际原料价格大幅变动的研究 有着一定的借鉴意义。 关键词：进口鱼粉价格，价格风险，预警，BP 人工神经网络模型 Early Waring of Imported Fish Meals Price Risk Abstract As the major animal protein source in feed for livestock and aquaculture, fish meal is an important material to feed processing industry. China is a big country of animal husbandry and aquaculture,but also a big feed producing country, consuming mass of fish meal,but fish meal industry is highly dependent on fishery resources.The yield of fishmeal in China is low for the limited coastal fisheries resources,and the domestic consumption is mostly dependent on foreign import,which makes China a high import dependency country of fishmeal.The price of imported fish meal is volatile affected by the complicated international and domestic markets, making the fishmeal-related industry facing a huge price risk. Analysing the risk from imported fish meal price , and establishing early warning system for the price risk have a practical application for fish traders, feed manufacturers and livestock, aquaculture farmers . This paper first reviews the related concepts about risk and price risk,and summarizes main methods based on the studies of domestic and foreign scholars about researching on early warning of price rick .Then we describe the current situation of fishmeal s markets home and abroad to distinguish the alarming sources and waring signs of price risk.In this paper,we discuss the alarming sources in terms of the cost of production, supply and demand, currency values, expectations, international policy and climatic factors, and determine BDI,imports of fish meal, fish stocks, soybean meal prices, production of pig feed, aquatic feed production, production of poultry feed, international price index for the warning signs of early warning systems. After establishing the early-