基于贝叶斯网络的公众参与PPP项目决策研究.PDF

第 35 卷 第 3 期 广东工业大学学报 Vol. 35 No. 3 2018 年 5 月 Journal of Guangdong University of Technology May 2018 doi: 10.12052/gdutxb.170160 基于贝叶斯网络的公众参与PPP项目决策研究 方 媛，刘俊槐，谢晶珠，卢晓晴，曾妍倩，谢汉雄 （广东工业大学　土木与交通工程学院，广东　广州 510006 ） 摘要: 目前PPP项目决策论证只注重项目的财务分析, 探求公共部门与私人投资者的利益合作, 忽视了PPP项目另一利 益主体——社会公众的需求, 从而造成了许多PPP项目最终的社会满意度不高、国民经济评价不佳等问题. 本文在研 究公众参与PPP项目决策的可行性和有效性的基础上, 以贝叶斯网络为手段建立了一个多目标决策模型, 辅助公众参 与PPP项目规划决策. 最后, 通过对某商业性PPP项目决策模型的模拟运算, 分析了该模型结果的获得过程. 关键词: 公私合营；贝叶斯网络模型；公众参与；决策支持系统 中图分类号: F282；G206.3 文献标志码: A 文章编号: 1007–7162(2018)03–0079–08 Public Participation in Decision-making of PPP Project Based on Bayesian Network Fang Yuan, Liu Jun-huai, Xie Jing-zhu, Lu Xiao-qing, Zeng Yan-qian, Xie Han-xiong (School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China) Abstract: The decision making process of PPP projects always focuses on the profitability and meeting the interest of government sectors and private investors. The decision maker paid little attention to the requirement and preference of the public users, resulting in low social satisfaction and poor national economic effect. In order to reduce the risk of social stability which always comes from projects low social satisfaction, the feasibility and effectiveness of the public participating in the decision-making of PPP projects are discussed. Then a multi- objective decision making model based on Bayesian theory is established to help the decision maker adopting the method of