气候变化经济学与适应机制.pdf

气候变化经济学与适应机制 报告人：王晓霞罗焕娟 主要内容 从经济学视角认识气候变化 课题内容汇报 ◦ 气象灾害社会经济影响评估方法 ◦ 灾害脆弱性评价：气候变化背景下中国城市水资源 ◦ 农业和农村的气候变化适应研究 ◦ 农业巨灾保险的气象需求分析 Part I: 从经济学视角认识气候变化  气候是公共物品。 The climate is a public good.  气候变化问题的经济学原因是温室气体排放带来的外部性。  Climate change is a result of the externality associated with greenhouse-gas emissions.  温室气体排放者没有承担其排放成本，而是将其成本转嫁给全社会和未来。  it entails costs that are not paid for by those who create the emissions.  除非实施有效的政策干预，市场无法纠正外部性。  Human-induced climate change is an externality, one that is not ‘corrected’ through any institution or market, unless policy intervenes. 气候变化外部性与众不同  气候变化是全球性的。 It is global in its causes and consequences.  气候变化的影响是长期和持续的。 The impacts of climate change are long-term and persistent.  气候变化的经济影响充满了不确定性和风险。  Uncertainties and risks in the economic impacts are pervasive.  气候变化带来的主要的不可逆的变化具有非线性的经济影响。  There is a serious risk of major, irreversible change with non- marginal economic effects.  全球的减缓和适应活动在某种程度上也具有公共物品性质，要避免搭便车行 为，需要有效率的公共政策的干预。 Aspects of adaptation to climate change also have some of the characteristics of public goods and require public policy intervention.  适应也面临信息不充分和正的外部性等各种市场失灵的挑战。 efficient adaptation to climate change is also hindered by market failures, notably inadequate information on future climate change and positive externalities in the provision of adaptation.  据测算，减少温室气体排放的成本大约将是全球平均GDP的1%。 An estimate of resource costs suggests that the annual cost of cutting total GHG to about three quarters of current levels by 2050, consistent with a 550ppm CO2 estabilisation level, will be in the range –1.0 to +3.5% of GDP, with an average estimate of approximately 1%.  从伦理角度看，适应要求发达国家对最脆弱的发展中国家的强有力的 支持。后者严重缺乏必须的资金，并且承受主要由发达国家历史上温 室气体排放带来的巨大的风险。 The ethics of adaptation imply strong support from the rich countries to the most vulnerable. Part I: 小结 