人民币国际化的区域性扩展路径.PDF

Regional Expansion Path for RMB Internationalization ZHOU Yu (SASS Institute of World Economy) Table of Contents • I. Three Stages of Regional Expansion for RMB Internationalization • II. Offshore RMB Business Expansion towards the Chinese Economic Circle • III. Future Development Prospects of Offshore RMB Business I. Three Stages of Regional Expansion for RMB Internationalization • 1. Stage 1: RMB internationalization dominated by border trade (Before 2009) Until 2009, cross-border use of RMB was not included into statistics systems of the customs and banking, so the study on RMB internationalization mainly focused on estimates of RMB flows and stocks in borderland countries and regions. As for RMB stocks, multiple speculations prevailed, such as RMB 100 billion, RMB 30 billion, RMB 20 billion, RMB 10 billion, RMB 5 billion and RMB 1 billion yuan. • 2. Stage 2: RMB internationalization dominated by Hong Kong offshore market (2009-2012) At this stage, cross-border RMB transactions were highly concentrated in Hong Kong offshore market. Hong Kong was primary region where RMB settlements of cross-border trade were made. Almost all of dim sum bonds were issued in Hong Kong. RMB Foreign Direct Investments (RFDI) into the Chinese Mainland were mainly conducted by Hong Kong enterprises. • 3. Stage 3: RMB internationalization dominated by the Chinese Economic Circle (Since 2013) RMB cross-border and offshore ttransactions start to expand towards Chinese economic circle outside Hong Kong. II. Offshore RMB Business Expansion towards the Chinese Economic Sphere • First, the development of overseas RMB clearing banks raises the curtain in the Chinese Economic Circle. Before 2013, all four overseas RMB clearing bank