公交到站时间预测及换乘机制的研究-计算机应用技术专业论文.docxVIP

Abstract Research on Bus Arrival Time Prediction and Bus Transfer Mechanism Research on Bus Arrival Time Prediction and Bus Transfer Mechanism Abstract With the rapid development of intelligent city, intelligent traffic is also getting more and more attention and bus arrival time prediction has become one hotspot to the researchers in recent years. Accurate and real-time prediction of bus arrival time can not only help travelers to choose a better route, but also provide scientific proof for the traffic department to manage scientifically and make a reasonable scheduling. This dissertation focuses on the problems of bus arrival time prediction and bus transfer, and puts forward a dynamic prediction model of bus arrival time and a dynamic bus transfer model based on the time prediction, the main content includes several aspects as follows: Firstly, it establishes a dynamic prediction model of bus arrival time based on varieties of static and dynamic factors in order to explore a variety of static and dynamic factors influencing bus arrival time. The experimental results show that the dynamic model gets a higher accuracy than the baseline. Secondly, it proposes an adaptive model of bus arrival time prediction based on the volatility of bus arrival time to increase efficiency and further improve the accuracy of dynamic prediction model. It calculates bus arrival time volatility at three layers: 1) different time periods in different dates; 2) different sections in different dates; and 3) different sections in different time periods to illustrate which factors affect the accuracy of bus arrival time prediction. The further optimization for adaptive prediction divides the prediction route into different combinations, considering the volatility of adjacent sections. The experiment shows that our adaptive model successfully reduces the computation time of the model and further improves the model’s prediction accuracy. Finally, it puts forward a bus transfer model based on