电力负荷预测与调度策略研究-电气工程专业论文.docxVIP

河北工业大 河北工业大学硕士学位论文 电力负荷预 电力负荷预测与调度策略研究 摘 要 伴随着现代社会的飞速发展，人民的生活水平也在不断提高。高速发展的国民经 济与高品质的生活必须有高效清洁的能源作为强大的支撑，电能以其高效、无污染的 特点日益成为社会发展不可取代的重要能源，同时社会用电需求量的高速增长也在推 动着电力工业的迅猛发展。为了提高电力系统运行的稳定性与安全性，对电力需求进 行负荷预测以及对负荷进行管理，具有重要的工程应用价值。 本文介绍了国内外电力负荷预测研究方法及理论，研究了基于小波包变换理论和 SVR 模型的负荷预测方法。该方法采用小波包变换算法对负荷数据进行分解；对分解 后的负荷序列小波系数，利用 SVR 理论建立负荷 SVR 预测模型。测试结果表明，该 方法能较好的预测实际负荷。 本文开展了一个基于 Windows 平台的通用 SCADA 系统的实现和应用,详细说明 了系统的硬件和软件的配置和实现。分析了系统基本功能，设计了系统的功能模块, 构建了基于 SVR 理论预测负荷的系统模型框架。设计的集成化的配电调度系统使得 操作和通信更加高效,利于促进故障恢复、降低维护费用。 关键词：小波包变换;SVR 模型;调度系统 I- PAGE PAGE IV ABSTRACT Along with the rapid development of modern society, peoples living standards are rising. The rapid development of national economy and high-quality of life must have a clean and efficient energy as its strong support. The electric energy has become the irreplaceable energy of society development for its efficient, non-polluting characteristics. And the rapid growth of communitys electricity demand has also promoted the speed of electric energys development. In order to improve the stability and security of power system operation, the prediction and management of load of the power demand has a significant academic value and project application value. With the methods and theories of the power load forecasting on existing domestic and international research, basing on the theories of wavelet packet transform and SVR model, the load forecasting methods is studied in this paper. This method uses wavelet packet transform algorithm for load data decomposition and utilize the theory of SVR and establish load SVR prediction model after decomposition of loading sequence. The test results show that this method can predict the actual load effectively. An application of universal SCADA system based on Windows platform is developed in this paper, as well the configuration and implementation of the hardware and software of the system is detailed. On the basic function of the system, a practical function module and an open package are