支援台洪应变决策之灾害预警技术研发-行政院灾害防救应用科技方案.PDF

支援颱洪應變決策之災害預警技術研發 The Development of The Disaster Prediction Technology Supporting Decision Making 主管單位：國家災害防救科技中心 于宜強 林欣弘 陳奕如 Yu, Yi-Chiang Lin, Xing-Hong Chen, Yi-ru 國家災害防救科技中心 摘要 本計畫主要是支援中央災害應變中心與滿足應變決策分析需求，故研發目標將 持續針對颱風豪雨災害應變期間的降雨、坡地崩塌及淹水災害等在時、空間的技術 進行開發，並以跨領域模式整合架構開發，提昇淹水與坡地崩塌境況模擬的應用， 落實災害風險及社會影響與災害衝擊評估分析。另外，配合地方政府的應變資訊需 求，落實即時災害預警資訊等的支援技術之發展，以縣市為單位進行技術落實開發。 此外，亦持續以跨單位交流合作方式，介接氣象模式系集預報資料，並持續針對定 量降雨預報能力的提升進行研究，期望改進降雨預報的不確定性。另外，也透過系 集颱風路徑預報的應用發展，研擬多颱風路徑情境下可能造成的災害評估，透過情 境風險分析，提供颱風應變的災害風險建議。 關鍵字：災害情境、災害衝擊評估、鄉鎮災害預警、系集預報應用 Abstract The major target of this project is to support the works in Central Emergency Operational Center (CEOC) and to satisfy the needs of decision making in the emergency operation. For this purpose, the research and technology development are focus on the disaster warning application of flood and land-slope disaster for the typhoon and heavy rainfall emergency operation. In this project, the interdisciplinary model integrated framework is fulfilled gradually through the integration of weather model, disaster model and society assessment model. Besides, in order to support the requirements of local government in the emergency operation, the township disaster warning technology have been developed in each county area and will build up a realtime disaster warning system. The technology developments include the realtime probability model predictions for the flood and land-slope warning. The next step further is to assess the disaster impact for society and economy for making suggestion to CEOC. Furt