人民币汇率波动对中国从东南亚进口制造业产品的影研究毕业论文.docx

中国人民大学本科学生毕业论文 人民币汇率波动对中国从东南亚进口制造业产品的影响研究  摘要 得益于跨国公司的生产分割，中国与东南亚的中间产品贸易发展迅速。人民币作为支付和结算货币已被众多东南亚国家接受，并被视为硬通货。 在关于人民币汇率波动对中国-东南亚贸易的影响的文献中，部分学者认为生产分割导致人民币汇率波动对贸易流量的作用被稀释，汇率对零部件进口几乎没有影响；也有学者指出，人民币贬值在中国出口商品价格调整中发挥了重要作用。总之，以往的研究对人民币汇率波动的影响没有统一定论，且多集中于出口领域，对于进口（特别是中间产品进口）的研究还比较少。 本文基于1996-2010年中国从东南亚11个国家进口额的年度数据，运用动态最小二乘法，分析了总进口和按用途、技术水平分类的进口与汇率的关系。对面板数据进行了描述性统计，发现中间产品进口额明显高于基础产品。通过对不同技术水平进口的分析，发现人民币对东南亚进口的影响主要由高等技术型进口和中等技术型进口驱动；具体到零部件进口方面，人民币贬值只会对低等技术型和资源型进口产生影响，对高等技术型和中等技术型进口影响甚微。最后，本文在研究发现的基础上给出了政策建议。 本文的创新之处在于，从生产分割与技术水平的角度探讨了人民币汇率波动对中国从东南亚进口的影响，提出了一些新的研究思路。 关键词：人民币汇率 东南亚进口产品 生产分割 技术水平  Abstract Benefiting from international fragmentation of production of multinational corporations, the intermediate product trade between China and Southeast Asia countries develops rapidly. Renminbi was used as currency of payment and settlement by many Southeast Asia countries and regarded as hard currency. Among the literature about RMB exchange rate impact on China - Southeast Asia trade, some scholars think that the RMB exchange rate impact on trade flow is diluted by fragmentation of production and that components and parts imports are merely influenced by exchange rate. However, other scholars believe that RMB depreciation plays a vital role in price adjustment of China’s exports. Generally speaking, most previous documents focus on the effect of RMB exchange rate on China’s exports, but few pay attention to the effect on China’s imports, especially intermediate product imports. This article is based on the annual data of China’s imports from Southeast Asia countries during 1996 and 2010. Applying DOLS, this study examines total imports and imports classified by usage and technology levels. Firstly, this article elaborates descriptive statistics of the panel data, finding that the import amount of intermediate products highly exceeds that of basic products. Then, through analysis of import of different technology levels, this article points out that the influence of Ren