2-刘晓斐 冲击地压电磁辐射时序预警模型及应用-2011绿色开采研讨会.pptVIP

School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology 冲击地压电磁辐射时序预警模型及应用 2011绿色开采理论与实践国际研讨会, 9月24 刘晓斐，王恩元 中国矿业大学安全工程学院 电话：0516-mail: liuxiaofei_1981@163.com Rockburst early-warning model based on time series analysis of electromagnetic radiation data applied in coalmines School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology 主 要 内 容 ： 1. 冲击地压电磁辐射预测现状 2. 存在的问题及意义 3. 冲击地压电磁辐射时序预警模型 4. 结束语 School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology 1. 冲击地压电磁辐射预测现状 电磁辐射监测技术，则是通过非接触式监测开采活动引起围岩破裂产生的电磁辐射前兆信号来实现冲击地压的实时监测及预警，其对围岩应力分布及变化特征的响应明显，容易受到井下电磁场（机电、电气设备）的干扰影响。 电磁辐射预测冲击地压方法： 临界值法和趋势法（现行预测方法） 模糊数学模型 神经网络异常判识模型 灰色-尖点突变模型 混沌预测模型 School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology 1. 冲击地压电磁辐射预测现状 现行的临界值法和趋势法，即对矿井某一监测区域电磁辐射指标的测试数据进行统计分析，并参考常规预测方法（如钻屑量等）的预测结果，来确定灾害危险性的电磁辐射临界值。当电磁辐射数据超过临界值时，认为有动力灾害危险；当电磁辐射强度或脉冲具有明显增强、或先增大后降低的趋势时，也表明有动力灾害危险。 这种以分析趋势为主，临界值作参考的预测预报方法，在一些现场进行冲击地压灾害预测时得到了较好的应用，但不具有普遍性。 现行方法 School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology 2. 存在的问题及意义 1）面对目前海量的冲击地压电磁辐射监测数据，现行的冲击地压电磁辐射预测方法在冲击地压电磁辐射前兆信息的挖掘和分析上深度不够，对数据的利用也比较有限，仅仅停留在一般的数据处理上。 2）神经网络、混沌和分形理论由于其较为复杂的理论性，在煤矿现场未能得到广泛应用，而现场需要简单的、自动的、易操作的冲击地压电磁辐射预测方法。 3） 井下各种机电设备运行时