组织经济学与管理学ch13 Biases in decision making.pptVIP

Chapter 13 Biases in decision making George Hendrikse Figure 13.2: Tendencies in decision making Organisational measures Short term focus Current costs and benefits receive a disproportional amount of attention in decision processes. 1. Procrastination Postpone starting a healthy diet starting a new project killing a bad performing project start studying for an exam Organisational responses pose a deadline for profitability punish admitting mistakes mildly allow credible excuses separate starting and finishing decisions job rotation (to limit overcommitment to project) Make results visible clear figures step-by-step plan 2. Obedience ‘Befehl ist befehl’ Milgram experiments A series of small, escalating concessions establishes an incredible obedience. 3. Melioration Herrnstein Prelec (1992) People (and animals) have the tendency to focus on today’s costs and benefits of current choices, without taking future consequences of these choices into account. Shortsightedness Distance Interest / background Probability of certain events occurring Law of small numbers People often exaggerate the representativeness of a small sample. Striking information gets too much weight in the decision process of people. Prospect theory Asymmetry between gains and losses Reference point Framing The choices / preferences of people are often not robust w.r.t. the way in which choice possibilities / alternatives are represented. Reference point Most people are often more sensitive to how the current situation differs from to a reference point, than to the actual characteristics of the situation. Two empirical observations Loss aversion. People value a small loss twice as much as a similar gain. Decreasing sensitivity. Marginal changes close to the reference point entail a larger change in utility than an identical marginal change far away from the reference point. How do you depict these observations in a figure? Three properties Relationship between MU and risk-aversion is abandoned G