德意志银行 世界经济展望2010.pdfVIP

Global o 3 March 2010 r c a Global Economic Perspectives Economics M Table of Contents Financial Conditions Indexes: h c Key Economic Forecasts Page 02 r a A New Look Financial Conditions Indexes: A New Look Page 03 e s e Central Bank Watch Page 08 R s • Financial conditions indexes, including one maintained by DB, have been Global Data Monitor Page 11 t e showing a significant rebound in overall financial conditions to a level Charts of the Week Page 12 k that is now supportive of the economic expansion. But a new index r a constructed in a report for the US Monetary Policy Forum finds financial Global Week Ahead Page 13 M conditions still to be a net drag on growth. This piece summarizes the Financial Forecasts Page 15 l key analysis and findings of the MPF report. a b Main Deutsche Bank o • Based on its coverage and design, as well as its superior forecasting Global Economics Publications Page 16 l ability over the past decade of financial stress, the new USMPF FCI is G judged to be a better indicator. It covers a much wider set of variables, especially quantities