新兴产业产能过剩问题研究——以我国多晶硅产业为例-research on overcapacity in emerging industries - a case study of polysilicon industry in china.docxVIP

中文摘要产能过剩此前被称之为意复建设、过度投资或者过度竞争，它一 直困扰着中国经济，近年来产能过剩问题更是引发各方高度关注，并再次成为政 策部门的工作重点。本文采用西方经济学、产业经济学、数量统计学的相关学科 理论知识和方法，研究我国多晶硅产业发展的现状和问题，并提出多晶硅产能过 剩的评价指标和方法。在此基础上，利用回归模型分析影响产能过剩的相关因素， 并提出相应的治理对策。文章共分为五个部分，第一部分为导论提出研究的目的、研究方法以及基本 思路，对日有产能过剩的理论和研究方法进行梳理和评述，指出这些观点和方法 的缺陷及理论适用性问题;第二部分从产能过剩的理论分析入芋，在指出产能过 剩常态的基础上进一步说明本轮经济周期出现的产能过剩新特点，即新兴产业产 能过剩的出现，并介绍了我国新兴产业产能过剩的特点和大背景，进而在理论上 提出我国新兴产业产能过剩问题的特殊诱因。第二、第四章以我国多品础产业为 例在分析其产业发展现状及出现的产能过剩问题的基础上对其产能过剩进行判 定和度量。跑过建立模型进行相关性分析，最终得出新兴产业产能过剩的影响因 素。最后第1i章在理论和头证分析的结论上探讨我国新兴产业产能过剩合理的治 理政策，并提出相应的政策建议。关键词:新兴产业;产能过乘 11;多品旺产业;ABSTRACTIn this pap町 we 白rstly referenced theory evolution ，basic models and main insights of the excess capacity and reviewed the related Iiterature. By using the knowledge of economics，industrial economics and some methods of statistics，we ilIustrate the formation and development of the Polycrystalline silicon índustry andthen establish an evaluation index system of excess capacity in this industry. Furthermore ，on 由is basis we establish a classical regressíon model to analyze whichfactors play a leading role in many incentives of the excess production capacity in the Polycrystal1ine silicon industry and propose several countermeasures to thedevelopment of the newly emerging industries.ηlis pap町 is divided into six chapters，with the main themes of each chapter as follows: the first p盯t proposes the main objectives of the research. At the same timethis part explains the basic methodology and the main ideas of thís pap町.Chapter two reviews theory evolution ，research method and main insights of the excess capacity and illustrates the related reviews of literature from domestic and foreign aspects. All these analysis make us understand 由e theoretical framework moreeasily and point out which thωry are suitable for our research.Chapt即 three analyzes the formation mechanism of excess capacity，showing that there are some new features of excess capacity under the conditions of maαu-economy fluctuations in 由is cycle