钟甫宁 2013年CAER-IFPRI.ppt

Demographic change in rural China: Implication for future innovation CAER/IFPRI Annual Conference Oct. 17-18, 2013 Central China Agricultural University, Wuhan, China Zhong Funing Nanjing Agricultural University Introduction China has experienced the “largest peaceful migration in human history” since the reform, which greatly contributed to economic growth, urbanization, and farmers’ income as well. How about the impacts on the long-run sustainable growth in agriculture, especially grain production? What technology innovation is needed in adapting to the demographic change? Introduction Declining share of rural labor force: from 70.5% in 1978 to 34.8% in 2011， implying 273 millions moved out Agricultural Production： Agricultural GDP: +4.56% per year; Grain production: +1.6% per year; Shift of grain production to more labor intensive vegetables Explanation and future challenge? Demographic change in rural China; Farmers’ adaptation to demographic change Demographic change in rural China Despite significant declines in the shares of rural population and labor force, the absolute number of rural labor force did not reduce. Number or laborers per household increased from 2.45 in 1980 to 2.78 in 2011, and arable land per capita only slightly increased from 2.17 mu in 1995 to 2.30 mu in 2011, implying no change in land/labor ratio. Demographic change in rural China Despite labor input per unit of sown area is about 5 times high in vegetable production, its total sown area has increased from 3 to almost 20 million hectares, with its share in total crop area increased from 2 to 12 %, implying no definite and absolute shortage in labor supply. Demographic change in rural China Based on our village-wide survey (covering 121 counties, 203 villages, 7317 households and 28,021 persons in 5 provinces with big population and out migrants) , 80% of young laborers aged be