The Origin of Wealth - Global Systems Dynamics and …：财富全球系统动力学和起源…[精品].ppt

LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * LOX-ZYJ201SGEB-P1 * Modelling Economic Evolution Eric Beinhocker McKinsey Global Institute EC Workshop on the Development of Agent Based Models for the Global Economy and Its Markets Brussels, 1 October, 2010 Copyright ? 2010 McKinsey Company, Inc. * Today’s discussion Facts – five empirical observations to be explained Proposal – economic change as evolutionary search through physical, social, and economic design spaces Implications for agent-based modelling * Today’s discussion Facts – five empirical observations to be explained Proposal – economic change as evolutionary search through physical, social, and economic design spaces Implications for agent-based modelling * Fact no. 1 – discontinuous economic growth World GDP per capita, constant 1992 US$ Source: J. Bradford DeLong, U. Cal. Berkeley 2.5m BC to 2000 AD 15,000 BC to 2000 AD 1750 to 2000 * Fact no. 2 – increased order and complexity 102 SKU economy From . . . 1010 SKU economy To . . . Wal-Mart 100,000 SKUs Cable TV 200+ channels 275 breakfast cereals * Fact no. 3: evolutionary patterns in technology “Add successfully as many mail coaches as you please, you will never get a railway thereby” Joseph Schumpeter * Fact no. 4: economies are physical systems subject to the laws of thermodynam