全球金融市场研究20104.pdf

Financial Markets Research Monthly Outlook April 2010 1 April 2010 A tough battle / Elwin de Groot +31 30 2169012 The April issue of our Monthly Outlook publication features a first glance at our projections for 2011. Broadly speaking we are seeing a continuation of the global economic recovery. However, the recovery will be uneven in the sense that we see growth slowing a bit in the US and Japan, whereas it should pick up in Europe. Moreover, it will be a tough battle, as governments are under increasing pressure from investors and rating agencies to steer government finances back towards a sustainable path. At the current juncture, it is the eurozone, and the European periphery in particular, that is bearing the brunt of investor scrutiny. Sovereign concerns haven’t eased materially since eurozone heads of state reached their agreement on a Greek safety net. Their statement lacks explicit and strong commitment, implying that, should it ever come to the invocation of the backstop facility, eurozone members could still back away – leaving the IMF as the ultimate lender of last resort. At best, the plan is consistent with previous verbal commitments by EU leaders “that they won’t leave Greece out in the cold”. Ultimately, therefore, the need to set things straight will continue to fall upon individual member states – and markets will act accordingly. Sovereign spreads are likely to remain volatile. The euro is out of favour – a situation that is likely to persist in coming months. However, policy makers in the UK, and at the other side of the Atlantic, should not become complacent, as investors may quickly shift their attention towards