LecturetwoHeuristicdrivenbias行为金融学讲义.pptx

Behavioral FinanceHeuristic-Driven BiasTulip maniaDutch “tulip mania” in 1600sContract prices for bulbs of the recently introduced tulip reached extraordinarily high levels and then suddenly collapsed.Anonymous 17th-century watercolor of the Semper Augustus, famous for being the most expensive tulip sold during tulip mania (i.e., the value of 12?acres (49,000 m2) of land). A tulip, known as the Viceroy, displayed in a 1637 Dutch catalog. Its bulb cost between 3000 and 4200 florins depending on size. A skilled craftsman at the time earned about 300 florins a year.What’s happening in China?What’s happening in China? Think…Real estate bubble? (house prices…)Tea bubble? (e.g., the price of大红袍 has increased by 10 times since last year)Stamp bubble? (e.g., the prices of生肖邮票 have been double within 3-4 months.) The price of兔票 has increased by 33% since it was issued early of January.)Behavioral biasBehavioral bias is categorized based on some kind of meaningful frameworkHeuristic; beliefs; judgment; preferences; cognitive or emotional, etc.Heuristic?(from the Greek Ε?ρ?σκω for find or discover)?refers to experience-based techniques for problem solving, learning, and discovery.“Rule of thumb”Psychology identifies the principles underlying rule of thumb and systematic errors associated.Heuristic-driven biasAvailability biasRepresentativeness biasOverconfidence biasAnchoring and adjustment biasAmbiguity aversion biasEndowment biasSelf-attribution biasAvailability biasAvailability bias, is a mental shortcut, allows people to estimate the probability of an outcome based on how prevalent or familiar that outcome appears in their lives.Q: which is more frequent cause of fatalities, shark attack or airplane parts falling from the sky?People relies on readily available information when making decisions.Availability bias -categoriesRetrieveabilityIdeas that are retrieved easily also seem to be the most credibleE.g., investors choose investments based on suggestions from a friends.Ca