KCIC中国国内需求研究报告.pdf

No signs of final demand KCIC November 2009 www.kcic‐/research KCIC Research at a glance Every month, we provide: 1) Macroeconomic outlook. 2) Analysis of all countries in Asia and  GCC, and some key industrialized  economies. 3) Trading developments on all major  commodities. www.kcic‐/research Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi Fatema Akashah Vivek Sharma Chief Economist Research Analyst Research Analyst amagnolibocchi@kcic‐ fakashah@kcic‐ vsharma@kcic‐ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this report is prepared by the Research Department of the Kuwait China Investment Company (KCIC) and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed herein are: 1) based on current market prices, data, and conditions; 2) subject to change without notice; and 3) may differ from the opinions expressed ‐for other purposes or in other contexts ‐by other areas of KCIC. KCIC does and seeks to do business in countries covered in its research reports; hence, investors should be aware of potential conflicts of interests that could affect the reports’ objectivity. Research recommendations do not constitute financial advice nor extend offers to participate in any specific investment on any particular terms. Investors should consider this material as only a single factor in making their decisions. 2 Macro Outlook – November 2009 Executive Summary 1. Short term outlook: policy‐induced rebound! No signs of final demand, yet. – Yes, signs of recovery: GDP, PMI, housin