Fitch2010年秘鲁经济研究.pdf

Sovereigns  Special Report  Peru Stays Its Course Through the Global Crisis  Ratings  Summary  Foreign Currency It has been two years since Fitch Ratings upgraded Peru to investment grade and, Long‐Term IDR BBB‐ given the severity of the global economic and financial crisis, Peru has performed Short‐Term IDR F3 well among its ‘BBB’‐range peers (sovereigns rated ‘BBB+’, ‘BBB’ or ‘BBB−’). Peru’s Local Currency key credit strengths, including its macroeconomic performance, and fiscal and Long‐Term IDR BBB external finances, emerged from the crisis intact. However, the sovereign’s credit weaknesses, which tend to be structural in nature, will take time to address. Country Ceiling BBB  As Peru’s recovery deepens, the sovereign’s credit drivers will balance further Outlooks  improvement of its fiscal and external position against nagging structural Foreign‐Currency Long‐Term IDR Stable weaknesses, such as a concentrated export base, high albeit declining dollarization, Local‐Currency Long‐Term IDR Stable  low per capita income, and weak social and governance indicators. Confidence that the sovereign’s fiscal and external balance sheets will continue to strengthen could Analysts  be positive for Peru’s creditworthiness. A smooth transition in the next presidential Ther