Fitch2010年4月全球经济展望.pdf

Sovereigns  Special Report  Global Economic Outlook  Analysts  Summary: RecoveryGathers Momentum  Brian Coulton The global economic recovery which began in mid‐2009 appears to be gathering +44 20 7862 4097 momentum. GDP expanded by more than expected in the US, France, Japan and brian.coulton@ the UK in Q409. For the major advanced economies (MAEs) as a whole, activity Maria Malas increased by 0.8%, up from 0.3% in Q309. While the euro area (EA) suffered a +44 20 7417 4316 slowdown in Q409, this was largely anticipated, as the car‐scrapping scheme came Maria.malas@ to an end in Germany. Only Italy suffered an adverse surprise as growth slipped Andrew Colquhoun back into negative territory in Q409; but there, as in France and Germany, more +852 2263 9938 recent data point to a pick‐up in Q110. Andrew.colquhuoun@ Ed Parker The outperformance of GDP among the MAEs at the end of last year offers some +44 20 7417 6340 reassurance that a turning point for the world economy was indeed reached in mid‐ ed.parker@ 2009. With forecasts for growth in 2010 also being revised up in this edition of the Shelly Shetty “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO), the contrast with the pattern of forecast errors +1 212 908 0324 and revisions seen a year or so ago could not be starker. As the margin table she