DR2010年8月全球商业研究.pdf

Investment Research — General Market Conditions 4 August 2010 Monitor Global: Business Cycle Monitor Summary and outlook  Global leading indicators continued to decline in July showing further signs of slowing growth in H2. Especially, China is coming to a halt but US indicators also point to a more Key leading indicators to watch front-loaded slowdown. Europe has been the positive surprise with Germany looking  German factory orders: Aug 5 strong. Commodity prices have recovered somewhat but overall still point to a slowdown. The Baltic Dry index is slightly higher but overall still at a low level.  OECD lead. indicators: Aug 6  Indicators suggest a more front-loaded slowdown than expected. This is probably a  German ZEW: Aug 17 consequence of the European debt crisis from spring and a stronger impact from Chinese  German ifo: Aug 17 tightening measures than previously expected.  Euro flash PMI: Aug 25  We expect a further gradual slowdown of leading indicators in H2 and there is a rising risk that global growth could slip below potential growth towards the end of the year. This  US ISM / Global PMI: Sep 1 points to continued high market volatility and downward pressure on bond yields as declining leading indicators will spur fears of a double-dip. Details  Global PMI new orders fell again in July to 54.0 from 55.7 in June. This was the third consecutive decline. However, the fi