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The Development of
Chinese Gas Pricing:
Drivers, Challenges and Implications for Demand
OIES PAPER: NG 89
Contents
Preface 2
Introduction4
1. Chinese gas prices in the international context 6
1.1 Chinese gas imports prices in comparison with international prices 6
1.2 Major imports and pricing development 6
2. The structure and evolution of natural gas price regulation 9
2.1 Chinese pricing structure and key determinants 9
2.2 The evolution of Chinese domestic pricing reform 12
2.3 Regional variations in market fundamentals and pricing reform16
2.4 Chinese gas price along value chains – A case study of Shanghai 21
3. The drivers for change and the gas-pricing challenges 23
3.1 Key drivers 23
3.2 Major pricing-reform challenges33
4. Implications of pricing developments for gas demand 36
5. Summary and Conclusions 42
Glossary 45
Bibliography 46
Figures and tables
Figure 1: Chinese import prices vs international prices, H2/2006 – 2013 6
Figure 2: Chinese pipeline imports and LNG prices, 2013 7
Figure 3: Chinese gas pricing structure 12
Figure 4: Evolution of Chinese gas pricing regulation 13
Figure 5: Sectoral gas demand across the regions, 2011 17
Figure 6: Provincial city-gate prices across the three main regions, July 2013 18
Figure 7: End-user prices for the three main regions, 2013 19
Figure 8: Gas prices and tariffs along value chains to Shanghai, 2013 22
Figure 9: Growth of gas share of total provincial energy consumption, 2006-2011 23
Figure 10: Residential fuel prices across four major provinces/municipalities, 2013 24
Figure 11: Fuel prices for industrial users across four major provinces/municipalities, 2013 25
Figure 12: Ratio of NGV gas price to gasoline price across major provinces/municipalities, 201326
Figure 13: Coal- and gas-fired power plants: tariffs, generation costs and utilization hours, 2013 27
Figure 14: Output and wellhead prices
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