市场营销课件Masters Lec 2 Merchandise Planning Process.ppt

The Merchandise Planning Process Sales Forecasting Buying Merchandising Corinna Budnarowska Intended Learning Outcomes To understand the concept of a merchandise plan and its importance in the Buying, Merchandising SCM functions To understand the purpose of the merchandise plan and how it can be used to forecast sales and maximise profit What is forecasting? Predicting future demand A resource planning tool: financial resource planning time management planning personnel management planning materials/production planning profit planning Forecasting can go beyond just the company itself extend to working directly with suppliers (joint forecasting) (Chen Wolfe, 2011) Sharing information can avoid the ‘Bullwhip Effect’ (Lee et al, 1997) Planned Sales - Sales ForecastingWhy we have to forecast Why: Overall business plan (retail no different to other industries) Monitoring progress (where are we against plan?, measure effectiveness) Buying requirements (determine quantities, react to changing sales/quickly adapt (too much stock / out of stocks) Stock and order system (Epos, optimising stock levels, central control) Sales forecasting is the starting point for any merchandise plan Crucial - all other merchandising decisions are then planned in relation to your sales forecast - domino effect We have established that sales forecasting is not scientific - it is a judgement call (to some extent) Therefore - we can conclude that sales forecasting is an ‘art’ gained by experience (product knowledge, sales history, etc.) Success is dependent on these factors: Accuracy of historical data utilised Interpretation of data (context) Quantitative evaluation of ‘future potential sales’ Qualitative knowledge of the market conditions The benefits of good sales forecasting Accurate budgeting The right amount of product and productivity (i.e. a good service level for consumers) Ability to deal with fluctuations in demand (e.g. seasonality) Good cash flow = the ability to spend