Brealey Myers，公司金融原理 第七版PPT Chapter_13.pptVIP

Slides by Matthew Will Topics Covered We Always Come Back to NPV What is an Efficient Market? Random Walk Efficient Market Theory The Evidence on Market Efficiency Six Lessons of Market Efficiency Return to NPV NPV employs discount rates These discount rates are risk adjusted The risk adjustment is a byproduct of market established prices Adjustable discount rates change asset values Return to NPV Example The government is lending you $100,000 for 10 years at 3% and only requiring interest payments prior to maturity. Since 3% is obviously below market, what is the value of the below market rate loan? Return to NPV Example The government is lending you $100,000 for 10 years at 3% and only requiring interest payments prior to maturity. Since 3% is obviously below market, what is the value of the below market rate loan? Assume the market return on equivalent risk projects is 10%. Random Walk Theory The movement of stock prices from day to day DO NOT reflect any pattern. Statistically speaking, the movement of stock prices is random (skewed positive over the long term). Random Walk Theory Random Walk Theory Random Walk Theory Random Walk Theory Random Walk Theory Random Walk Theory Random Walk Theory Random Walk Theory Efficient Market Theory Weak Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all historical information Semi-Strong Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all publicly available information Strong Form Efficiency Market prices reflect all information, both public and private Efficient Market Theory Efficient Market Theory Efficient Market Theory Efficient Market Theory Efficient Market Theory Efficient Market Theory Efficient Market Theory Efficient Market Theory Lessons of Market Efficiency Markets have no memory Trust market prices Read the entrails There are no financial illusions The do it yourself alternative Seen one stock, seen them all Example: How stock splits affect value 13- * McGraw Hill/Irwin Copyright ? 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. A