车险电销效益的模糊综合评价及其趋势预测论文.docVIP

车险电销效益的模糊综合评价及其趋势预测 摘 要：在保险市场竞争日益激烈，保险产品日趋同质，品牌和服务快速成长的背景下，选择合理的销售方式已经成为各家保险公司急需面对的问题.与传统渠道相比，保险的电销模式具有不同于传统销售方式的特征，其对车险的影响亦不可忽视. 论文首先运用模糊综合评价方法分析了电销对平安车险效益的影响.模型选取续保率、商业车险占有率及车辆类型这三个对车险效益影响比较大且易于区分销售方式的因素作为模糊综合评价的因素集.对比传统销售及电销两种不同销售方式对车险效益的影响，我们发现电销通过提升投保的续保率及车险中商业车险的占有率来促进企业效益的增长；但同时，由于其自身的局限型，电话销售受到车辆类型的限制而不利于提升车险效益.但总体而言，电销极大的促进了车险公司效益的提升. 由于电销对车险具有正面影响，其在车险的销售方式中所占的比例必定会增长，因此我们分析并预测电销车险市场占有率的变化趋势.由于已知数据相对较少，我们采用GM(1,1)模型进行短期预测并验证其合理性.根据2007-2010 年平安车险电销的数据预测出 2011-2014 年平安车险的总保费及平安电销车险的保费值，进而计算电销车险的占有率.由此模型可知，短期内电销车险占有率会逐渐增长，但从长期来看，电销不可能持续增长并替代传统销售方式，我们运用SWOT 分析定性地对此进行论证. 关键词：电销车险;模糊综合评价方法;GM(1,1)模型;SWOT 分析 Abstract：In the background of increasingly competitive insurance market, insurance products and prices become more homogeneous; brand and service grow more rapidly;choosing the right marketing channel has become the most urgent problem companies have to face. Compared with the raditional channels, telemarketing has its own characteristics, which cannot be ignored by the auto insurance company. This paper firstly analyzes the effect telemarketing has on Ping An auto insurance company by the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. In this model, we choose the renewal rate, commercial auto insurance coverage and vehicle type, which have greater impact on the insurance enterprise and can easily distinguish sales type, as the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation factor set. Compared with the traditional channel, we found that telemarketing promotes enterprises benefit by enhancing the insurance renewal rate and commercial auto insurance share. But due to its own limitations, telemarketing is not conducive to enhancing the auto insurance business efficiency. Overall, telemarketing greatly promotes the effective of the auto insurance company. The proportion of telemarketing will certainly grow because of the positive impact it has on the auto insurance companies, thus we analyze and forecast the trend of telemarketing auto insuranc