河北小麦白粉病流行的气象指标研究-自然灾害学报.PDFVIP

17 4 Vo.l 17, No. 4 2008 8 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Aug. , 2008 : 1004-4574(2008) 04-0038-06 1, 2 1, 2 3 4 5 姚树然 , 李春强 , 霍治国, 董占强 , 王贵生 ( 1. , 050021; 2. , 050021; 3. , 100081; 4. , 056000; 5. , 050011) :, , ;, ,, 10 11; 2 1995- 2007, 100% , 83% , 90% :; ; : S42 : A A research on clim atic indices for ep id em ic of wh eat powdery m ildew 1, 2 1, 2 3 4 5 YAO Shu-ran , L IChun-qiang , HUO Zhi-guo , DONG Zhan-qiang, WANG Gu-i sheng ( 1. M eteorological Institute ofHebeiProvince, Shijiazhaung 050021, China; 2. Hebei ProvincialKey Lab forEco-env ironmentM onitoring, Shijiazhaung 050021, China; 3. ChineseAcademy ofM eteorological Sciences, eijing 100081, China; 4. HandanM eteorological ureau, Handan 056000 China; 5 Hebei ProvincialP lant Protection Station, Shijiazhuang 050011, China) Abs tract: Taking the m iddle-south part ofH ebeiProvince as an example, the relationship bewt een clmi atic factors and wheat powderym ildew was analyzed by m eans of compound analysis and order statistics. Thewheat powdery m ildew prediction factors and its critical valueswere determ ined and prediction indexeswere established based on observed and investigated powdery m ildew information and meteorological data. The modelling and forecastwere made for the regional extent ofwheat powderym ildew also. The results show that there is only 1 level difference in 1 over 10 years, and the extrapolated forecastvalue for 2 years is the sam e as the re