中国城乡居民当期收入对消费的影响分析—对持久收入假说模型的批判性改进.docVIP

中国城乡居民当期收入对消费的影响分析 ——对持久收入假说模型的批判性改进 摘 要 随着投资和出口速度双下滑，我国经济发展进入新常态。如何通过刺激消费推动经济增长是新时期政府和学界的研究重点。目前国内学者在分析收入与消费的关系时，大多采用弗瑞德曼的持久收入假说，对其模型进行简单修改和解读，而更多地是应用此类模型分析我国城乡居民的收入与消费问题。但是由于消费行为更多地受民族文化和生活习性的影响，本文在结合弗瑞德曼持久收入假说思想的同时，创造性地将统计学上的下一期收入作为影响本期消费的重要因素，同时结合我国居民传统的消费惯性思维，将前一期消费作为影响本期消费的另一重要因素。此外，本文还就城乡居民的收入与消费分别建模并作出对比。 关键词：当期收入,消费,持久收入假说,消费惯性 THE ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF CURRENT INCOME ON CONSUMPTION OF CHINESE RESIDENTS —A CRITICAL IMPROVEMENT OF THE PERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESIS MODEL ABSTRACT With the decline in investment and exports, the speed of Chinas economic development has entered a new normal status. How to promote economic growth by stimulating consumption in the new era has became the focus of government and academic researchers. At present, scholars usually use Freedmans permanent income hypothesis to analysis the relationship between income and consumption, they simple modify and interpret this model, and focus on imply the model in analysis the income and consumption of urban and rural residents.However, consumer`s behavior is affected by many other factors ,such as national culture and living habits. Combing with the permanent income hypothesis of Friedman, the paper creatively points out that the income of the second term is in fact coming from the first term,so the income of next term which is widely cited in statistics is an important factor in the impact of the current consumption. Combining with the consumer inertia of traditional Chinese Residents,the paper shows that the consumption of prior period is another important factor of affecting consumer`s current spending . In addition, the paper also established models of income and consumption of urban and rural residents separately and then make comparison of them. KEYWORDS: consumption;current income;permanent income hypothesis;consumer inertia 研究背景 改革开放三十多年以来，我国城乡居民收入水平及消费水平均有了大幅提高，消费作为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一，对我国经济的持续快速增长发挥着不可获取的作用。近几年，随着人民币国际化速度加快，人民币币值不断提升，以及由国内劳动力成本逐渐提高带来的劳动密集型产业专业外流等形势，我国对外出口形势不