Representative vs real households in the macro ：代表与真正的家庭在宏观.pptVIP

SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES SOME USES OF MULTIPLIERS AND DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS JEFF ROUND January 2012 * * * Motivations for compiling a SAM Description - Useful snapshot of economic structure Construction - Good organising framework - Draws together data from disparate sources Basis for modelling - Data for calibrating macro and macro-meso models - Multiplier models capture structural features - CGE models, microsimulation, etc. * SAM-based modelling Multiplier models (fixed price models) - many examples in development economics - decomposition analysis is prominent CGE models (flexible price models) - many examples in development economics - trade, income distribution and poverty analysis Pros and cons between multiplier and CGE models - former are a special case of the latter - advantages and disadvantages of both approaches multiplier models offer simple insights and transparency CGE attempt to capture more endogenous behaviour - N.B. need to note that all models invoke assumptions * SAM-based multiplier models - Aim is to capture the circular flow of income: producers to consumers and vice-versa. - We need to distinguish between endogenous and exogenous accounts - Exogenous transactions: usually defined as the income and outlays of government, capital investment and rest of the world - Endogenous transactions: usually the production, factor and institution (households) accounts – capturing the circular flow of income * Multiplier models: how they work ... ... Secondary effects: increase in supply of inputs (standard input-output multipliers) Secondary effects: spending by households Factor income payments for factor services supplied (stemming from primary effects) Spending out of income by households Further secondary (i.e. multiplier) effects: Output effects Income effects Example: a simple SAM-based multiplier analysis Sector 1: Agriculture Sector 2: Manufacturing Example: a simple SAM-based multiplier anal