A fresh look at Strategy under UnCertainty an interview资料.pdfVIP

s t r a t e g y D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 8 A fresh look at strategy under uncertainty: An interview Although even the highest levels of uncertainty don’t prevent businesses from analyzing predicaments rationally, says author Hugh Courtney, the financial crisis has shown us the limits of our tools—and minds. Hugh Courtney’s book, 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World, was published the day before the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. As the economist and former McKinsey associate principal recalls, in the following weeks interviewers often asked him, “Does this change everything? Is this stuff still valid? The world is so much more uncertain.” Says Courtney, “The honest answer then was that the only thing that had changed was our perception of risks and uncertainties that were always there. And it’s the same answer I give today about the current global business and financial situation.” E X H I B I T The four levels of residual uncertainty One of Courtney’s contributions to the literature of strategy was a four-part framework to help managers determine the level of uncertainty surrounding strategic decisions. In level one, there is a clear, single view of the future; in level two, a limited set of possible future outcomes, one of which will occur; in level three, a range of possible future outcomes; and in level four, a limitless range of possible future outcomes. Courtney, an associate dean of executive programs and professor of the practice of strategy at the University of 1 Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, discussed the relevance of this idea in a recent interview with the Quarterly. Vital Statistics Born January 12, 1963, in Boston, Massachusetts