Chinas fiscal stimulas package资料.pdfVIP

Front. Econ. China 2010, 5(1): 1–24 DOI 10.1007/s11459-010-0001-8 RESEARCH ARTICLE Jonathan E. Leightner China’s Fiscal Stimulus Package for the Current International Crisis: What does 1996–2006 Tell Us? © Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag 2010 Abstract This paper uses Bi-Directional Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (BD-RTPLS) to estimate annual ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G multipliers for China’s 31 provinces between 1996 and 2006 (GPP = Gross Provincial Product and G= government spending in the province). In order to account for the influence of omitted variables, BD-RTPLS produces a separate ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G estimate for every observation in the data set. I find that ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G were highest in 1996 while China was drastically cutting government spending to curb inflation, were lowest in 1997 during the Asian Financial Crisis, slowly rose between 1998 and 2004, and then declined some in 2005 and 2006 when the Chinese yuan was slowly appreciating. Keywords fiscal policy, China, crises, stimulus JEL Classification E62, E65, N15 1 Introduction As the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression threatens our world in the early months of 2009, governments around the globe implement the largest fiscal stimulus packages in their histories. The Chinese government has pledged to spend four trillion yuan (586 million US dollars) over the next two years (2009–2010). In contrast, during the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis, the Received February 5, 2009 Jonathan E. Leightner () Johns Hopkins-Nanjing University Center, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China College of Business Administration, Augusta State University, Augusta, Georgia 30904, USA E-mail: jleightn@ 2 Jonathan E. Lei