基于IPCC AR4模式资料的地面气温超级集合预测精选.pdf

30 5 Vo.l 30, No. 5 2010 10 SCIENT IA METEOROLOG ICA SIN ICA O ct. , 2010 , , , . IPCC - AR4. , 2010, 30( 5): 70 714. Zh iX ief ei, Wu Q ing, B ai Yongqing, et al. Them ultmi odel superensem ble prediction of the surface temperature using the IPCC AR4 scenario runs. ScientiaM eteorologica S in ica, 2010, 30( 5): 70 714. IPCC AR4 智协飞 伍 清 白永清 祁海霞 ( , 210044) 利用参与 IPCCAR4的 个全球气候系统模式对 20 世纪气候模拟情景下地面气温 的模拟结果, 对其进行多模式集 处理在此基础上, 对这些全球气候系统模式在各种能源之间的 平衡(A 1B)情景下 2010 2030年的地面气温进行多模式超级集合预测结果发现, 个全球气候 系统模式模拟的地面温度均方根误差都比多模式简单集合平均的大超级集合相对于各个模式及 简单集合平均的模拟效果更好, 其均方根误差比最好的模式误差减小了 13 在A 1B情景下, 超 级集合预测未来 20 a北半球平均地面气温将普遍升高, 大洋上的增温幅度比陆地上小中国东部 地区以及青藏高原新疆大部未来 20 a气温将明显升高, 内蒙东部和辽宁西部最高升温可达 20~ 24 , 其余地区升温在 20 以内 SRES A 1B P4352 A The multimodel superensemble prediction of the surface temperature using the IPCC AR4 scenario runs ZhiX iefei W u Qing BaiYong ing Q iHaixia (K ey Laboratory of M eteorologicalD isaster of M in istry of Educa tion, Nanj ing University of Inf ormation S cience echnology, N anj ing 210044, China) Abstract Based on the IPCC AR4 scenario runs of models for global clmi ate system smi ulations of the surface temperature for 20th century, themultmi odel consensus smi u lations of the surface temperature w ere conducted and the rootmeansquare errors ( RM SEs) of ind ividual models, multmi odel ensemble mean asw ell as mu ltmi odel superensemble were calculated. In addition, the prediction of the