海上台风警报.PPTVIP

我們共同關心的天然災害議題 陳 泰 然 臺大講座 / 大氣科學系特聘教授 國立臺灣大學 時間：2014年 4月 16日（星期三）上午 地點：武漢理工大學 武漢理工大學應急（變）講座 一、極端氣象事件 二、天氣預報能力與限制 （一）颱風 （二）豪（暴）雨 （三）土石流 （四）監測預警體系 三、天然災害監測預警 四、氣候變遷 （一）氣候變遷議題的發展 （二）全球氣候系統變動 （三）氣候變遷可能造成的影響 （四）氣候變遷之回應策略、法律制定 及組織設置 Forecast day Increase in Extreme Events “Average” Year and Trends in the U.S. 6 Atlantic Basin Hurricanes 1,300 Tornadoes 5,000 Floods 26,000 Severe Thunderstorms 650 Deaths $15B in Losses Increasing number of extreme weather events at increasing cost to the nation. Accurate forecasts for extreme events have extended to 4-8 days Need to take these forecasts to the next level for effective decision support 極端事件增加，災害擴大。 一、極端氣象事件 Improved Forecasting Forecast skills for extreme events extended out to days 4-8 for Severe weather Fire weather Snowstorms Floods Heat/cold waves Hurricanes 極端事件預報能力提昇，預報期限增長 龍捲風與水龍捲 1987年 Saragosa Texas 龍捲風過後 龍捲風警報不斷改進 冰雹 Populations increasing along coastlines, exposing risks to intense storms and coastal inundation Increasing vulnerability to severe weather, floods, fire weather Floods and severe weather highlight the importance of quantitative precipitation forecasts Extreme Events, Increasing Vulnerabilities 脆弱度升高 世界人口增加 * Historic Accomplishment: Use of multi-model ensembles is extending accurate prediction of extreme events 5 to 8 days in advance ◎ Second revolution in numerical weather prediction Uncertainty being reduced—predictions now connected to a wide spectrum of decision makers; NWS is taking prediction to the next level The effort is geared toward building a “Weather-Ready Nation”: ready, responsive, resilient in the face of increasing number of extreme events around the globe Key to success: partnerships—consistent communication strategy to ensure proper/expected response (social science) For Taiwan: this approach could have a major impact on abilities to forecast and ensure a “ready, responsive, resilient” society Typhoons (with improved HWRF; global ensemble) Mei-Yu convective syst