大气环流特征量的水稻白背飞虱发生程度预报模型的研究-生态学杂志.PDF

Chinese Journal of cology 2005,24(2) : 146~ 152 * 1* * 2 2 3 1 高 苹 武金岗 陈 宁 杨荣明 吴洪颜 1 2 3 ( 江苏省气象科学研究所, 南京210009; 江苏省气象局, 南京210009; 江苏省农技推广中心, 南京210036) 500 hPa , , , ( ) , ,, , , ,, , Q9681 A 1000- 4890(2005) 02- 0146- 07 Atmospheric circulation characteristics (ACC) models for the prediction of the occurrence and development 1 2 2 3 1 of Sog at ella f urcif era . GAO Ping , WU Jingang , CH N Ning , YANG Rongming , WU Hongyan 1 2 ( M eteorolog ical I ns tit ute of Jiangsu P r ov ince , N anj ing 210009, China; J iangs u M eteorolog ical Bur eau , N anj ing 210009, Ch ina; 3 The Center f or A g r ic ult ur al Tech n iq ues Pop ular iz ation in Jiang su Pr ov ince, N anj ing 210036, China) Ch inese Jour nal of Ecology ,2005, 24(2) : 146~ 152. According to the fact that the atmospheric circulation characteristics ( ACC) of 500hPa can indicate the w eather patterns and control the w eather conditions,the relationship between the pest index (occurrence, in going quantity and the Fifth generation quantity of pest WBPH) and ACC factors w as analyzed with the aid of both linearity and optimization correlation techniques.A batch of ACC factors, which correlated excellently and stably w ith the pest index,w as picked out and the prediction model w as built up in Jiangsu Province in order to forecast the pest index.At the same time, the significant correlation was