Asymptotic Cointegration英文电子书.pdfVIP

Fixed Bandwidth Asymptotics in Single Equation Models of Cointegration with an Application to Money Demand∗ Helle Bunzel† August, 2003 Abstract This paper provides a new approach to testing cointegration parameters in a single-equation cointegration environment. The novelty is in improving over the well-known heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) robust standard errors using fixed bandwidth (fixed- b) asymptotic theory and adapting it to the cointegration environment. It is shown that the standard tests still have asymptotic distributions free of serial correlation nuisance parameters regardless of the bandwidth or kernel used, even if the regressors in the cointegration relationship are endogenous. Using asymptotic power and finite sample size simulation experiments, specific practical and user-friendly recommen- dations regarding kernel and bandwidth choices are made. Finite sample simulations comparing the size and power of the tests using the fixed- b asymptotics to some of the currently popular tests are performed. These simulations confirm that the well-known size distortion of the standard tests can be greatly reduced. Alternatively, one can obtain greater power with much the same level of size distortion, depending on the choice of kernel and bandwidth. Finally, the newly developed tests are employed to investigate the standard money-demand relationship for US data. ∗I thank Tim Vogelsang for his guidance, and the Center for Analytic Economics at Cornell for financial support. The theory greatly benefitted from a conversation with Wayne Fuller and from the promptness with which Pentti