中国银行业不良贷款成因、所带来金融风险及对策硕士学位论文.doc

硕士论文： 中国银行业不良贷款成因、所带来的金融风险及对策 版 权 声 明 任何收存和保管本论文各种版本的单位和个人，未经本论文作者授权，不得将本论文转借他人并复印、抄录、拍照、或以任何方式传播。否则，引起有碍作者著作权益之问题，将可能承担法律责任。 目 录 一、引言……………………………………………………………………………………1 二、对中国不良贷款数额的估计…………………………..…………………………2 2.1中国不良贷款问题的统计口径…………………………………………………………2 2.2估算………………………………………………………………………………………2 国不良贷款成因:事实的回顾……………………………………...…………….4 3.1 中国不良贷款问题的背景介绍…………..……………………………………………4 3.2国有商业银行不良贷款产生的机制……………………………………………………7 经验证据…………..…………………………………………………………....……11 4.1中国的银行对企业预算软约束的实证证据。…….…………………………..………11 4.2 不良贷款与预算软约束关系的实证证据…….…………………………..……..……12 文献综述…………………………………..…………………………………………13 六、理论框架-关于中国不良贷款成因的一个博弈模型…….…….……………15 七、中国不良贷款带来的金融风险。…….…………………………..……….……20 7.1中国面临的金融风险。……………………….…………………………..……….……20 7.2发生金融危机给中国带来的损失。…….……………………………….……….……23 八、政策建议…….…………………………………………………..……..……….……24 参考文献…….………………………….……………………………..……..……….……28  论文摘要 中国的金融体系脆弱银行体系是中国金融体系最脆弱、最危险的地方。 关键词：不良贷款、预算软约束、金融风险、博弈 Abstract: The Chinese Financial System is very fragile. The Chinese Banking System is the frailest in the Chinese Financial System. How to deal with the huge amount of Non Performing Loans (NPLs) is the dilemma of Chinese Banking System. This problem is not only very important in theory, but also very important to practice. In this article, the author first estimates the amount of Chinese NPLs and reviews the formation of Chinese NPLs. Then this article makes a survey of literature. On the basis of this, the author uses the theoretical framework of Soft Budget Constraint to analyze the formation mechanism of NPLs and the financial risk caused by the NPLs. At the end of this article author makes some policy suggestions. Key Words: Non-performing Loans, Soft Budget Constraint, Financial Risk,Game CONTENTS Introduction The Estimation to Chinese Non-Performing Loans. The Statistical Standard of Chinese Non-Performing Loans Estimation The Reason of Chinese Non-Performing Loans: A Survey to Facts The Background of Chinese Non-Performing Loans The Formation Mechanism of Chinese Non-Performi